Economic Updates for July 2026

GDP: +2.1% Annualized (Quarter 1, 2026)

Real GDP — Annualized Quarter-over-Quarter Change: +2.1% — Advance / Second / Final estimate · Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis

GDP growth of +2.1% in Q1 2026 reflects the current momentum of the US economy.

• Period: March 2026

LEI 6 month growth rate: -0.3%

Conference Board LEI — June 2026: 99.1 — Month-over-Month Change: -0.2%

The LEI at 99.1 (-0.2% MoM) signals the near-term economic direction. Sustained declines warn of slowdown risk.

• MoM Change: -0.2%
• Data Period: June 2026

DXY: 101.465 · MoM -0.13% · YoY +4.12%

Broad Trade-Weighted US Dollar Index — 2026-07-26: 101.465 — YoY: -0.13% · MoM: +4.12%

The US dollar at 101.465 reflects global demand for dollar assets and influences import prices, commodity markets, and US exports.

• MoM: -0.13%
• YoY: +4.12%
• Date: 2026-07-26

GSCI: 700.89 · As of 2026-07-26

S&P GSCI Total Return Index: 700.89 — Broad commodity basket — energy, metals, agriculture

Commodity prices as proxied by the GSCI reflect global demand conditions and supply pressures. Rising GSCI feeds into PPI and eventually CPI.

• Date: 2026-07-26

Gold: $4,071 · MoM +2.02% · YoY +31.44%

Gold Spot (USD/oz) — 2026-07-24: $4,071 — London AM Fixing · YoY: +31.44% · MoM: +2.02%

Gold at $4,071 reflects safe-haven demand, real interest rate expectations, and dollar strength. Strong YoY gains signal elevated uncertainty.

• MoM: +2.02%
• YoY: +31.44%

Bitcoin: $64,662 · 7D +0.17% · 30D +8.58%

Bitcoin Price (USD) — 2026-07-26: $64,662 — 7-Day: +0.17% · 30-Day: +8.58%

Bitcoin at $64,662 serves as a risk sentiment indicator. Its performance relative to gold signals the market's risk appetite.

• 7-Day Change: +0.17%
• 30-Day Change: +8.58%

CPI: 2.6% YoY · -0.42% MoM — June 2026

CPI All Items — June 2026: 2.6% — Year-over-Year · MoM: 0.0%

CPI at 2.6% YoY in June 2026. The Fed's 2% target remains well below the current inflation rate.

• YoY: 2.6%
• MoM: 0.0%
• Period: June 2026

PPI Final Demand: 5.5% YoY · -0.3% MoM — June 2026

PPI Final Goods — June 2026: 5.5% — Year-over-Year · MoM: -0.3%

PPI at 5.5% YoY is a leading indicator of consumer inflation. Rising producer prices typically pass through to CPI within 1–3 months.

• YoY: 5.5%
• MoM: -0.3%

1-Year Inflation Expectations: 4.8% · MoM +0.1%

1-Year Inflation Expectations — May 2026: 4.8% — Consumer survey · MoM: +0.1%

Inflation expectations at 4.8% matter enormously — the Fed monitors this closely. De-anchoring above 4% historically forces more aggressive policy response.

• MoM: +0.1%
• Period: May 2026

Consumer Sentiment: 54.4 · MoM +4.9 pts — July 2026

UMich Consumer Sentiment — July 2026: 54.4 — MoM Change: +4.9 pts

Consumer sentiment at 54.4 reflects household outlook on finances and the economy. Readings below 70 historically precede spending pullbacks.

• MoM Change: +4.9 pts
• Period: July 2026

Bullish: 29.6% · Bearish: 42.3% · Neutral: 28.1%

AAII Sentiment Survey — Week of 2026-07-26: 42.3% Bearish — Bullish: 29.6% · Neutral: 28.1%

AAII sentiment is a contrarian indicator. Extreme bearishness (>50%) historically marks near-term market bottoms; extreme bullishness (>55%) warns of complacency.

• Bullish: 29.6%
• Bearish: 42.3%
• Neutral: 28.1%

ISM Mfg PMI: 53.3 — Expanding (50 = threshold)

ISM Manufacturing PMI — 2026-07-26: 53.3 — Above 50 = expansion · Below 50 = contraction

Manufacturing PMI of 53.3 indicates the factory sector is in expansion. Manufacturing has outsized influence on employment and capital expenditure cycles.

• Signal: Expanding
• Threshold: 50.0

ISM Services PMI: 54.0 — Expanding

ISM Services PMI — 2026-07-26: 54.0 — Services represent ~80% of US GDP

Services PMI at 54.0 covers the dominant segment of the US economy. Sustained readings below 50 signal broad economic contraction.

• Signal: Expanding

Industrial Production: 102.64 · MoM +0.08% · YoY +1.14%

Industrial Production Index — June 2026: +0.08% — MoM change · Index level: 102.64 · YoY: +1.14%

Industrial production at 102.64 (+0.08% MoM) reflects the health of manufacturing, mining, and utilities. A key real-economy gauge alongside ISM surveys.

• MoM: +0.08%
• YoY: +1.14%

Retail Sales: +0.24% MoM · +7.19% YoY — June 2026

Retail & Food Service Sales — June 2026: +0.24% — Month-over-Month · YoY: +7.19%

Retail sales +0.24% MoM in June 2026 reflect the consumer's willingness to spend. Consumer spending drives ~70% of US GDP — retail trends are the economy's pulse.

• MoM: +0.24%
• YoY: +7.19%

NFP: +57k Jobs Added — June 2026

Non-Farm Payrolls Change — June 2026: +57k — Prior Month: +129k

Payrolls of +57k in June 2026. Sustained prints below 100k/month signal labor market deterioration; above 200k signals robust demand for workers.

• This Month: +57k
• Prior Month: +129k

Vehicle Sales: 16.95M SAAR — June 2026

Total Light Vehicle Sales SAAR — June 2026: 16.95M SAAR — MoM change: +0.44M million units

Vehicle sales at 16.95M SAAR are a discretionary spending bellwether. Pre-pandemic average was ~17M SAAR — levels significantly below that indicate consumer caution.

• SAAR Level: 16.95M SAAR
• MoM Change: +0.44M

Manheim Index: 212.90 · MoM +0.10%

Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index — 2026-07-26: 212.90 — MoM: +0.10% (seasonally adjusted)

The Manheim index at 212.90 is a leading indicator for used-car CPI. Rising used car prices add directly to core CPI with a 1–2 month lag.

• MoM: +0.10%

New Home Supply: 9.3 months — June 2026 (5–6 months = balanced)

Monthly Supply of New Houses — June 2026: 9.3 months — Months of supply at current sales pace · Balanced = 5–6 months

New home supply at 9.3 months signals a buyer's market with excess inventory. Sustained oversupply puts downward pressure on new home prices.

• Period: June 2026
• Balanced Level: 5–6 months

30-Year Rate: 6.58% · WoW +0.03% — 2026-07-23

30-Year Fixed Mortgage Rate — Week of 2026-07-23: 6.58% — Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey · WoW: +0.03%

Mortgage rates at 6.58% remain at historically restrictive levels. Meaningful housing recovery requires rates well below 6%.

• WoW Change: +0.03%
• Survey Date: 2026-07-23
• Affordable Level: < 5.5%

Unemployment: 4.2% · MoM -0.1pp — June 2026

Unemployment Rate — June 2026: 4.2% — Seasonally Adjusted · MoM: -0.1pp

Unemployment at 4.2% is softening gradually. A move above 4.5% would significantly raise recession risk assessments.

• MoM Change: -0.1pp
• Period: June 2026
• Recession Signal: > 4.5%

Initial Claims: 187,000K (-22,000K WoW) · Continuing: 1,796,000K

Initial Jobless Claims — Week of 2026-07-18: 187,000K — WoW change: -22,000K · Continuing Claims: 1,796,000K

Initial claims of 187,000K and continuing claims of 1,796,000K. Watch for sustained initial claims above 260k as the threshold for labor market deterioration.

• Initial (wk 2026-07-18): 187,000K
• WoW Change: -22,000K
• Continuing (2026-07-11): 1,796,000K
• Alert Threshold: > 260K

10Y–2Y Spread: +0.36% · Un-inverted — Normalizing

10-Year minus 2-Year Treasury Yield — 2026-07-24: +0.36% — MoM change: +0.06pp · Recession signal: sustained inversion

The yield curve has un-inverted to +0.36% — normalizing from prolonged inversion. Watch whether steepening accelerates.

• Spread: +0.36%
• Status: Normal
• MoM Change: +0.06pp

HY OAS: 2.77% · MoM +0.01pp

ICE BofA US HY OAS Spread — 2026-07-23: 2.77% — MoM: +0.01pp · Crisis threshold: >8%

HY OAS at 2.77% indicates calm credit markets with tight spreads — risk appetite is healthy. Spreads above 8% historically signal systemic stress.

• OAS Spread: 2.77%
• MoM Change: +0.01pp
• Crisis Level: > 8%

Put/Call Ratio: 0.99 — Fearful / Hedging

CBOE Total Put/Call Ratio — 2026-07-26: 0.99 — Below 0.7 = bullish · Above 1.0 = fear · Contrarian indicator

Put/Call ratio at 0.99. As a contrarian indicator: extreme fear (ratio >1.2) often marks near-term bottoms, while complacency (ratio <0.5) can precede corrections.

• Ratio: 0.99
• Signal: Cautious

S&P 500 P/E: 20.25x — Stretched Valuation

S&P 500 Price/Earnings Ratio — 2026-07-24: 20.25x — Historical average ~17x · Elevated = >22x

S&P 500 trading at 20.25x. Elevated P/E ratios reduce the margin of safety and make equities more vulnerable to earnings disappointments or rate shocks.

Macro Economic Update — July 2026

• P/E Ratio: 20.25x
• Hist. Avg: ~17x
• Date: 2026-07-26

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