Economic Updates for June 2026

GDP: +5.1% Annualized (Latest Quarter)

Real GDP — Annualized Quarter-over-Quarter Change: +5.1% — Advance / Second / Final estimate · Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis

GDP growth of +5.1% in January 2026 reflects the current momentum of the US economy.

• Period: January 2026

LEI: 148.86 · MoM +0.18%

Conference Board LEI — April 2026: 148.86 — Month-over-Month Change: +0.18%

The LEI at 148.86 (+0.18% MoM) signals the near-term economic direction. Sustained declines warn of slowdown risk.

• MoM Change: +0.18%
• Data Period: April 2026

DXY: 118.88 · MoM -0.18% · YoY +0.54%

Broad Trade-Weighted US Dollar Index — 2026-05-29: 118.88 — YoY: +0.54% · MoM: -0.18%

The US dollar at 118.88 reflects global demand for dollar assets and influences import prices, commodity markets, and US exports.

• MoM: -0.18%
• YoY: +0.54%
• Date: 2026-05-29

GSCI: 693.82 · As of 2026-06-06

S&P GSCI Total Return Index: 693.82 — Broad commodity basket — energy, metals, agriculture

Commodity prices as proxied by the GSCI reflect global demand conditions and supply pressures. Rising GSCI feeds into PPI and eventually CPI.

• Date: 2026-06-06

Gold: $4,337 · MoM -7.36% · YoY +48.23%

Gold Spot (USD/oz) — 2026-06-05: $4,337 — London AM Fixing · YoY: +48.23% · MoM: -7.36%

Gold at $4,337 reflects safe-haven demand, real interest rate expectations, and dollar strength. Strong YoY gains signal elevated uncertainty.

• MoM: -7.36%
• YoY: +48.23%

Bitcoin: $60,809 · 7D -17.37% · 30D -25.07%

Bitcoin Price (USD) — 2026-06-06: $60,809 — 7-Day: -17.37% · 30-Day: -25.07%

Bitcoin at $60,809 serves as a risk sentiment indicator. Its performance relative to gold signals the market's risk appetite.

• 7-Day Change: -17.37%
• 30-Day Change: -25.07%

CPI: 4.0% YoY · +0.64% MoM — April 2026

CPI All Items — April 2026: 4.0% — Year-over-Year · MoM: +0.64%

CPI at 4.0% YoY in April 2026. The Fed's 2% target remains well above the current inflation rate.

• YoY: 4.0%
• MoM: +0.64%
• Period: April 2026

PPI Final Demand: 5.2% YoY · +1.01% MoM — April 2026

PPI Final Goods — April 2026: 5.2% — Year-over-Year · MoM: +1.01%

PPI at 5.2% YoY is a leading indicator of consumer inflation. Rising producer prices typically pass through to CPI within 1–3 months.

• YoY: 5.2%
• MoM: +1.01%

1-Year Inflation Expectations: 4.7% · MoM +0.9%

1-Year Inflation Expectations — April 2026: 4.7% — Consumer survey · MoM: +0.9%

Inflation expectations at 4.7% matter enormously — the Fed monitors this closely. De-anchoring above 4% historically forces more aggressive policy response.

• MoM: +0.9%
• Period: April 2026

Consumer Sentiment: 44.8 · MoM -5.0 pts — May 2026

UMich Consumer Sentiment — May 2026: 44.8 — MoM Change: -5.0 pts

Consumer sentiment at 44.8 reflects household outlook on finances and the economy. Readings below 70 historically precede spending pullbacks.

• MoM Change: -5.0 pts
• Period: May 2026

Bullish: 36.3% · Bearish: 37.0% · Neutral: 26.7%

AAII Sentiment Survey — Week of 2026-06-06: 37.0% Bearish — Bullish: 36.3% · Neutral: 26.7%

AAII sentiment is a contrarian indicator. Extreme bearishness (>50%) historically marks near-term market bottoms; extreme bullishness (>55%) warns of complacency.

• Bullish: 36.3%
• Bearish: 37.0%
• Neutral: 26.7%

ISM Mfg PMI: 54.0 — Expanding (50 = threshold)

ISM Manufacturing PMI — 2026-06-06: 54.0 — Above 50 = expansion · Below 50 = contraction

Manufacturing PMI of 54.0 indicates the factory sector is in expansion. Manufacturing has outsized influence on employment and capital expenditure cycles.

• Signal: Expanding
• Threshold: 50.0

ISM Services PMI: 54.5 — Expanding

ISM Services PMI — 2026-06-06: 54.5 — Services represent ~80% of US GDP

Services PMI at 54.5 covers the dominant segment of the US economy. Sustained readings below 50 signal broad economic contraction.

• Signal: Expanding

Industrial Production: 102.50 · MoM +0.68% · YoY +1.35%

Industrial Production Index — April 2026: +0.68% — MoM change · Index level: 102.50 · YoY: +1.35%

Industrial production at 102.50 (+0.68% MoM) reflects the health of manufacturing, mining, and utilities. A key real-economy gauge alongside ISM surveys.

• MoM: +0.68%
• YoY: +1.35%

Retail Sales: +0.47% MoM · +5.21% YoY — April 2026

Retail & Food Service Sales — April 2026: +0.47% — Month-over-Month · YoY: +5.21%

Retail sales +0.47% MoM in April 2026 reflect the consumer's willingness to spend. Consumer spending drives ~70% of US GDP — retail trends are the economy's pulse.

• MoM: +0.47%
• YoY: +5.21%

NFP: +172k Jobs Added — May 2026

Non-Farm Payrolls Change — May 2026: +172k — Prior Month: +179k

Payrolls of +172k in May 2026. Sustained prints below 100k/month signal labor market deterioration; above 200k signals robust demand for workers.

• This Month: +172k
• Prior Month: +179k

Vehicle Sales: 16.48M SAAR — May 2026

Total Light Vehicle Sales SAAR — May 2026: 16.48M SAAR — MoM change: +0.09M million units

Vehicle sales at 16.48M SAAR are a discretionary spending bellwether. Pre-pandemic average was ~17M SAAR — levels significantly below that indicate consumer caution.

• SAAR Level: 16.48M SAAR
• MoM Change: +0.09M

Manheim Index: 212.60 · MoM +0.30%

Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index — 2026-06-06: 212.60 — MoM: +0.30% (seasonally adjusted)

The Manheim index at 212.60 is a leading indicator for used-car CPI. Rising used car prices add directly to core CPI with a 1–2 month lag.

• MoM: +0.30%

New Home Supply: 9.4 months — April 2026 (5–6 months = balanced)

Monthly Supply of New Houses — April 2026: 9.4 months — Months of supply at current sales pace · Balanced = 5–6 months

New home supply at 9.4 months signals a buyer's market with excess inventory. Sustained oversupply puts downward pressure on new home prices.

• Period: April 2026
• Balanced Level: 5–6 months

30-Year Rate: 6.48% · WoW -0.05% — 2026-06-04

30-Year Fixed Mortgage Rate — Week of 2026-06-04: 6.48% — Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey · WoW: -0.05%

Mortgage rates at 6.48% remain moderately elevated. Meaningful housing recovery requires rates well below 6%.

• WoW Change: -0.05%
• Survey Date: 2026-06-04
• Affordable Level: < 5.5%

Unemployment: 4.3% · MoM +0.0pp — May 2026

Unemployment Rate — May 2026: 4.3% — Seasonally Adjusted · MoM: +0.0pp

Unemployment at 4.3% is softening gradually. A move above 4.5% would significantly raise recession risk assessments.

• MoM Change: +0.0pp
• Period: May 2026
• Recession Signal: > 4.5%

Initial Claims: 225,000K (+13,000K WoW) · Continuing: 1,777,000K

Initial Jobless Claims — Week of 2026-05-30: 225,000K — WoW change: +13,000K · Continuing Claims: 1,777,000K

Initial claims of 225,000K and continuing claims of 1,777,000K. Watch for sustained initial claims above 260k as the threshold for labor market deterioration.

• Initial (wk 2026-05-30): 225,000K
• WoW Change: +13,000K
• Continuing (2026-05-23): 1,777,000K
• Alert Threshold: > 260K

10Y–2Y Spread: +0.38% · Un-inverted — Normalizing

10-Year minus 2-Year Treasury Yield — 2026-06-05: +0.38% — MoM change: -0.11pp · Recession signal: sustained inversion

The yield curve has un-inverted to +0.38% — normalizing from prolonged inversion. Watch whether steepening accelerates.

• Spread: +0.38%
• Status: Normal
• MoM Change: -0.11pp

HY OAS: 2.74% · MoM -0.05pp

ICE BofA US HY OAS Spread — 2026-06-04: 2.74% — MoM: -0.05pp · Crisis threshold: >8%

HY OAS at 2.74% indicates calm credit markets with tight spreads — risk appetite is healthy. Spreads above 8% historically signal systemic stress.

• OAS Spread: 2.74%
• MoM Change: -0.05pp
• Crisis Level: > 8%

Put/Call Ratio: 0.97 — Fearful / Hedging

CBOE Total Put/Call Ratio — 2026-06-06: 0.97 — Below 0.7 = bullish · Above 1.0 = fear · Contrarian indicator

Put/Call ratio at 0.97. As a contrarian indicator: extreme fear (ratio >1.2) often marks near-term bottoms, while complacency (ratio <0.5) can precede corrections.

• Ratio: 0.97
• Signal: Cautious

S&P 500 P/E: 31.8x — Stretched Valuation

S&P 500 Price/Earnings Ratio — 2026-06-06: 31.8x — Historical average ~17x · Elevated = >22x

S&P 500 trading at 31.8x. Elevated P/E ratios reduce the margin of safety and make equities more vulnerable to earnings disappointments or rate shocks.

Macro Economic Update — June 2026

• P/E Ratio: 31.8x
• Hist. Avg: ~17x
• Date: 2026-06-06

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